Posts by Marvin Shilmer

posted

739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
Marvin Shilmer

-

“how about you go first and tell me what I am missing, instead of moving the goalposts. As a reminder:

“- Beliaev and Marvin agree 10x mortality for anemic JWs

“- 0.2/100,000 is the accepted mortality rate for anemic non-JW's

“- 2/100,000 mortality would be a reasonable assumption for anemic JW's

“What am I missing?”

besty,

I answer for me. Not for you.

What I’ve written and presented is not based on a 10x mortality. The 10x mortality is a differential between mortality of severely anemic patients who accept blood and severely anemic patients who refuse blood. It is not a factor of how many JWs suffer death the result of severe anemia and blood refusal.

To use the given statistics to extrapolate how many JWs suffer death the result of severe anemia and blood refusal I’ve used the statistical value of deaths over the norm among a given population of JWs (33 over 10 years) to form what amounts to a ratio of deaths over the norm suffered by JWs suffering severe anemia. The ratio is 3848-to-1.

Again:

In year 1998 there were 5,544,059 JWs. You do the math and tell readers what a ratio of 3848-to-1 gives us for the year 1998 alone.

Can you do that, and put this hard number in writing for readers to watch your math?

Marvin Shilmer
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
Marvin Shilmer

-

“Marvin: 3.3 cannot be a coefficient of the data study because a coefficient ranges only from 0 to 1.”

My usage of coefficient was colloquial meaning in this case it’s a property that’s inherent to the data set.

Marvin Shilmer
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
Marvin Shilmer

-

“If my numbers are right then you are claiming that over 20% of JWs die because of refusing blood transfusions.

“Is this correct?”

That is an absurdity and is nothing I’ve claimed.

“Says the people who signed the study as " © 2011 International Society of Blood Transfusion”

That presumes those who use blood transfusion advocate the practice based on preference rather than sound science.

Marvin Shilmer
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
Marvin Shilmer

-

“Did I zone out for a minute, where did the 3.3 come from and how is that a 'population'?

“Are you sure you don't have population and sample size back to front?”

Statistically a sample size is the entire number you’re looking at (in this case comparing something to) and the population of that sample size is the portion of the sample that meets whatever criterion is at issue. In this case the sample size is the annual population of JWs in New Zealand (avg. 12,700 for period 1998-2007) and the 3.3 is the annualized figure of statistical deaths attributed to severely anemic JWs refusing blood among the annualized 12,700 JWs in New Zealand.

Marvin Shilmer
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
Marvin Shilmer

-

“When he says "JWs", he's referring to those JWs who live within the area of the four hospitals, even if they weren't actually participants in his study.”

As a general rule I’d have to disagree with that statement. Nevertheless, in this case we have every reason to think severely anemic JWs refusing blood in New Zealand have a reduced mortality compared to just about anywhere else in the world. Yet my conclusions do not take advantage of this to statistically increase mortality. We also have no reason to think the statistical incidents of severe mortality are anyways increased in the New Zealand study at issue (that are left unaccounted for). Moreover, my conclusions assume there was not as much as a single death at any other trauma center in the given region of a severely anemic JW refusing blood. Again this is to avoid anything that would statistically increase extrapolated mortality values.

Marvin Shilmer
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
Marvin Shilmer

-

“And therein lies a big problem: the study was done by proponents of blood transfusion, hardly an independent study (and I couldn't find anyone but 'us' citing this study either).”

Says who?

Marvin Shilmer
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
Marvin Shilmer

-

“Dare I say it, but do we need to deduct from the figure an estimated number of lives saved by not taking blood?”

This is a coefficient of the data study because the study included those who refuse blood and those who accept blood. Hence if there were JWs in the study who survived the result of refusing blood then this only reduced the hard count of deaths, and it is the hard count of deaths forming the basis of this information and subsequent calculations.

Marvin Shilmer
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
Marvin Shilmer

-

“Marvin: do those 4 hospitals treat more or fewer patients with anemia than others in New Zealand?

“This could be a huge source of variation.”

Simon,

In my presentation what you inquire of presents no variation because my presentation assumes other trauma facilities in the same region as the 4 experienced exactly ZERO deaths due to refusal of blood transfusion by severely anemic patients.

Again, my calculation was performed to arrive at very conservative results.

Marvin Shilmer
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
Marvin Shilmer

-

“@simon, marvin

“call me a simpleton but....

“- Beliaev and Marvin agree 10x mortality for anemic JWs

“- 0.2/100,000 is the accepted mortality rate for anemic non-JW's

“- 2/100,000 mortality would be a reasonable assumption for anemic JW's

“now do the maths. and it ain't 50,000 dead JW;s.”

besty,

An annual sample size of 12,700 with an annual population of 3.3 (that would be 33 over 10 years) presents a ratio of 3848-to-1.

In year 1998 there were 5,544,059 JWs. You do the math and tell readers what a ratio of 3848-to-1 gives us for the year 1998 alone.

Can you do that, and put this hard number in writing for readers to watch your math?

Marvin Shilmer
739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in
1. watchtower
2. medical
80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!
Marvin Shilmer

-

“Marvin: you don't seem to 'get' that your tiny study in a small country with some rather unique circumstances simply can't be applied to 'the world' with any degree of accuracy. You can use as many decimal places as you want, but it's precision and not accuracy.”

You keep saying things like that yet you have failed to express any reason why this data set is not useful for conservative and/or liberal extrapolations based on certain criterion, such as life expectancy in New Zealand compared to the rest of the world, state of healthcare in New Zealand compared to the rest of the world, etc.

Do we, for instance, have any reason to think there are more or less cases of severe anemia in New Zealand compared to the rest of the world (that are not accounted for in the study)? If so, what are those reasons? My review and conclusions assume the best case scenario in terms of mortality.

Do we, for instance, have any reason to think outcomes for treating severe anemia in New Zealand are better or worse compared to the rest of the world? If so, what are those reasons? My review and conclusions assume the best case scenario in terms of mortality.

You’ve made your assertions above. Now prove it.

My use of these particular statistics is done to keep the numbers as conservative as possible!

Marvin Shilmer